Wednesday, December 07, 2005

My Stock Picks

Chambal Fertilisers has been one of my favourite stocks and I was delighted when it finally crossed 40. The way the promoters have been buying for the past one year, I had expected a higher price since long. But it has never made big jumps during the recent bull run. Of course, everybody who has interests in the Indian stocks knows that Chambal has been a very good dividend yielding stock. Hopefully, it will remain above 40 and touch new highs.

Biocon and Tata Teleservices are my other top picks for long-term, that is at least for the next few years.

Biocon has a charismatic leader, and biotechnology is considered to be the next big thing. Also, the share price is drastically down as compared to the prices during the initial hype. There have no changes in the fundamentals of the company since then. Only the shares are cheaper now - that itself is a strong argument to buy.

Tatas do not like to remain in any spot other than number one or two and they have started making huge plans for Tata Teleservices. The publicly held TTML will be merged with Tata Teleservices when it goes public and it will go public when Tatas become number one or two in the Indian telecom industry. I know that seems a wishful thinking with the other players in the market but you have the examples of TCS, Tata Motors, Tata Steel or Tata Tea.

I also have had high hopes from iGate. I have been patient enough to hold it for the last three years while it had remained range bound when all the other stocks were having a great time. Anyway, I have decided to hold it till Phaneesh quits.

The share picking logic that I follow is to find ones which are fundamentally sound companies and those which have not had huge run ups in their share price recently. The downside of this logic has been that these shares don't participate in the frenzied rallies and are thus termed as market laggards. But I have been reading Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham and I believe that investment is for a lifetime. I have been part of the stock market scene only for the last 3-4 years and I don't want to judge my investment decisions in such a small timeframe (doesn't mean that there were no spectacular gains).

Investment has not been totally risk-averse though. I believe that animation and special effects outsourcing might become the next big thing after software in India. And I have picked Color Chips in this area. Also need to study something in the ready food products area. Agro Tech might be a good choice.

But I would agree that having a few good index shares might have been a good idea.

Pappus

Not sure where the name came from - possibly some bollywood movie with a character called 'pappu mobile'. The pappus are a group of friends from a software company in Mumbai with a whacky sense of humour. The humour sometimes borders on the line of irritation, ridicule, or tragedy; depends on the listeners capacity to take it. Rakesh and Vaibhav are the irritators; those who have taken a taste of their humour might be ready to call them the terminators. Vinod and Rajendra are the ridiculers who are ready to find wrong with anything in the world - the subject could be as valid as George W. Bush, Sourav Ganguly, or Mandar and as unacceptable as Sachin Tendulkar and Amitabh Bachchan; but I think the favoured subjects are the bright ideas of managers they work or don't work with.

Each from the group gets a name e.g. 'pappu vilaayati' for somebody who has been to onsite very often. The pappus had a very dynamic member (and interestingly never called a pappu) called 'major'. Wittingly or unwittingly major provided a lot of ammunition to the pappu reign of terror (aah, as they say... those were the days). All the pappus miss major a lot as one fine day fate played a cruel game and major was out of the company. Major visited the pappu group once in a while - he was also very depressed with having to leave the pappu group. But now the whole pappu group is joining major's company. And that is major's power.

Vaibhav introduced a lot of TLA's to the pappu dictionary. Yep, Three Letter Acronyms. I am sure he can speak complete meaningful sentences using TLAs (great idea to rename Vaibhav as the 'pappu TLA'). A couple of the all time favourites are CPP (Chai Piya? Piyega?) and LKK (Lunch Khaya? Khayega?). The pappu group was so used to these TLAs that some may have used it at home to some astonished faces. No surprises though if somebody at Vaibhav's place give a call for DKK (you may have guessed what that means by now).

Grilled Chicken and Potatoes

Last Sunday, I took up the task of cooking lunch to provide some respite to Mili who has to slog all the week. For a very dumb cook like me, you would think microwave is the greatest help. But I haven't mastered the microwave art - it has been limited to warming up leftovers. But I use it to thaw the frozen chicken. For a half kg. chicken (four drumsticks), it takes around 15 minutes in the defrost mode.

Depending on your preference, you can leave the skin on or remove it. For coating the chicken prepare a mixture of 1 tablespoon fine semolina (or ground rice), half teaspoons of chilly powder and turmeric powder. Take an egg and break it in a bowl, mix the yellow and white well. Add a pinch of salt to both the coating mixture as well as the egg. You can also apply a bit of salt on the chicken directly. Dip the chicken drumsticks one by one in the egg and then coat with the semolina mixture. Cut the potatoes in four pieces (leave their skin on) and similar to the chicken pieces, coat them too. Things are ready to go in the grill now. Add some oil on the chicken and potatoes and put them in the grill on medium heat for 6-7 minutes. Turn everything once and continue grilling for another 6-7 minutes. Check if it is done and continue grilling for 2-3 minutes, if required. That's it, ready to serve and make your wife/partner/friends happy.

Please let me know if you were ever to try this and any variations you may do.

Mile by Mile, India Paves a Smoother Road to Its Future

An interesting article on the NYT on the Golden Quadrilateral project in India and the changes it is bringing in India http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/04/international/asia/04highway.html
The slashdot article where I found it and the discussion is available at http://slashdot.org/articles/05/12/04/1812205.shtml?tid=126

Saturday, December 03, 2005

Obsession with Apple

From the day I was able to afford my first Apple Mac - an eMac, Apple has induced me into spending continuously. I have since then bought an iPod Shuffle, an iPod photo, Mac OS X (Tiger) and now succumbed to the temptation of the iBook. But sense prevailed and I got a used one from eBay. I had doubts whether a 3/4-year old G3 would be able to handle the latest OS, but the doubts have been laid to rest. It is unbelievably smooth. [Imagine Windows XP on a 500Mhz machine]. And it looks just fantastic. Icy white and apart from the letters on the keyboard and the name iBook on the lower portion of the screen, there is no color other than white.

I am not sure whether it is the hardware or the software which makes Apple devices better than anything else, but possibly it is due to the flawless design in either of them. There are no rough edges on either the hardware or the software. This lack of rough edges is what makes the products so unique. Smooth and sharp go hand in hand in all the Apple products. Each product looks so complete that you think that this cannot be improved anymore, and then Steve Jobs comes up with a Keynote announcement.

I think this iBook will chug along for the next couple of years and that is really good value for money. I hope I can keep away from the temptation of getting a new one with Intel chips next year. Anyway I already have made a couple of plans if I couldn't resist it then.





Comments on issue of Raj...

It was good to see that my blog did start a healthy discussion within the Pappu group (more about Pappus later - suffice to say they are a close group of friends with whacky sense of humor).
Vinod was angry because of the recent issue of Shiv Sena and Kannadigas over Belgaum. Rajendra, being from Konkan, had a view of Rane and Raj getting together but not in Congress. Whereas Rakesh had important suggestions about bringing quality processes in the management of a political party. Though the suggestion was made in a lighter vein, I think it does have certain merit.

The following are the excerpts from the chain of mails:

I agree with you on most of the points, BUT it was true when Balasaheb was in full swing. Now the TIGER being quiet old and Shiv Sena is being run by four clerks as said by Raj recently. I am no longer in favour of Uddhav led ShivSena. Lets see whether Raj is going to Start a new Party and how many existing ShivSainiks join him. Also I think it would have been better if Rane and Raj had decided to quit together and started a new party.

Existence of some political party that stongly acts in the interest of Maharashtra is must, may it be Shiv Sena or Shiv Raj Sena. Balasaheb Thakare had such party, but all power was concentrated in one person, and now when that person is planning to resign from active politics, existence of the entire party has become a concern. One of the point in CMM is that the organisation should not be person dependent. Even in the project management sessions it is thought that if dependency on one person increases then conduct knowledge sharing sessions and create a strong backup for that person. So that in absence of that key person the project is not sufferred. Similar logic can be applied to a political party.

So as per Vengu's logic we can expect Partys such as Congress CMM level 5, Shiv Sena CMM Level 3 , Rashtravadi Congress ISO 9002 etc by the next election and Voters (Client) will decide whom to give the Nation (Project) depending on their certification.....

Actually, not sure if political parties (at this point in India) can be compared to Projects… the level of transparency is the key as many other factors as execution/delivery commitments/penalties if breached and many others. Of course, common thing is sacking…

Rakesh's idea of quality based process can really provide a good start to Raj Thackeray - no kidding. But I disagree on the not to depend on a personality / leadership point. Because good managers can be groomed/created with defined processes, leaders cannot - leaders have to be born. I think history can provide lot of these examples - not just in politics or religion, but also in the industry.